b - Value Variations Preceding the Devastating , 1999 Earthquake , near Izmit , Turkey

b-Value Variations Preceding the Devastating, 1999 Earthquake, near Izmit, Turkey Sara Andersson The potential of temporal b-value variations as an intermediate-term (weeks to months) earthquake precursor was investigated in the western portion of the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ), between January 1982 to December 2004. The focus of the study is on the devastating, 1999 earthquake, near Izmit. Lists of events were provided from two teleseismic catalogues, ISC and NEIC, which are complete for threshold magnitude 3.7, comprising 287 and 224 events, respectively. To determine b-values, a technique of sliding overlapping time-windows was applied, using a fixed number of events in each window. Deduced b-values reveal large temporal variations in a broad range, 0.75-1.7 (ISC) and 0.5-1.6 (NEIC). There are statistically significant drops in b-value observed for both catalogues, preceding the occurrence of the Izmit earthquake. Also, present results reveal promising b(t)-characteristics of another large earthquake that occurred in the vicinity of Duzce, about 3 months after the Izmit shock. The stability of results is examined using different threshold magnitudes, different window sizes and step increments, declustering and a test through magnitude conversion. Observed correlation between low b and the occurrence of large earthquakes suggests that b(t) has a potential to act as an intermediate-term precursor in earthquake predictions.